Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

中文翻译：

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对极端海平面的全球概率预测表明，沿海洪灾危险加剧。

预计全球变暖将推动世界海岸线上极端海平面（ESL）和洪水风险的增加。在这项工作中，我们考虑了平均海平面，潮汐，风浪和风暴潮的变化，提出了本世纪ESL的概率预测。在2000年到2100年之间，我们预计，在中等排放量缓解政策的情况下，全球100年平均ESL很有可能会增加34-76 cm，在一切照旧的情况下，全球平均100年ESL会增加58-172 cm。ESL上升的主要原因是热膨胀，其次是冰川的冰质损失以及格陵兰和南极洲冰盖的贡献。在这种情况下，ESL的上升将使大部分热带地区每年从2050年起暴露于当今的100年事件中。