Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.Analyses of current coral reef growth rates in the tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean show that few reefs will have the capacity to track sea-level rise projections under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios without sustained ecological recovery.

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追踪未来海平面上升的珊瑚礁生长能力丧失

由于生态退化限制了垂直珊瑚礁的生长，预计海平面上升 (SLR) 会增加珊瑚礁上方的水深并增加沿海波浪暴露，但预测缺乏关于当地珊瑚礁生长速率与海平面上升之间相互作用的数据。在这里，我们计算了 200 多个热带西大西洋和​​印度洋珊瑚礁的垂直增长潜力，并将这些与不同代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景下最近和预计的 S​​LR 速率进行比较。尽管许多珊瑚礁保持接近最近 SLR 趋势的增生率，但很少有能力在没有持续生态恢复的情况下跟踪 RCP4.5 情景下的 SLR 预测，而在 RCP8.5 情景下，预计大多数珊瑚礁将经历平均水深增加超过0.5 m 到 2100。珊瑚覆盖强烈预测珊瑚礁跟踪 SLR 的能力，但防止淹没所需的阈值覆盖水平远高于在大多数珊瑚礁上观察到的水平。因此，需要采取紧急行动来缓解气候、海平面和未来的生态变化，以限制未来珊瑚礁淹没的程度。对热带西大西洋和​​印度洋当前珊瑚礁增长率的分析表明，很少有珊瑚礁具有这种能力在没有持续生态恢复的情况下，跟踪代表性浓度路径情景下的海平面上升预测。