Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

将全球变暖限制在1.5°C的情况描述了能源供应和不断增长的能源需求的重大转变。在这里，我们通过基于可观察到的趋势（导致能源需求低）发展对未来变化的叙述，提供了一种与众不同的观点。我们描述并量化了所有主要能源服务在全球北部和全球南部的活动水平和能源强度的变化。我们预计，尽管人口，收入和活动增加，到2050年，全球最终能源需求将降至245 EJ，比今天降低约40％。通过使用综合评估建模框架，我们展示了能源服务数量和类型的变化如何驱动中间和上游供应部门（能源和土地使用）的结构变化。缩小全球能源系统的规模显着提高了低碳供应方转型的可行性。我们的方案可以满足1.5°C的气候目标以及许多可持续发展目标，而无需依赖负排放技术。