Abstract Habitat connectivity is the milestone towards species' long-term persistence, especially considering impacts of climate change and human activities. Here, we examined the potential implications of climate change and human pressure on connectivity among habitat patches, aiming to identify priority areas and potential corridors for elephant conservation. We used an ensemble modelling approach to evaluate the potential climatic distribution of the savannah elephants Loxodonta africana through time. We considered different climatic scenarios and used current potential climatic suitability and human pressure to evaluate habitat quality for the species. In addition, we used habitat quality and the centroids of elephant patches to evaluate habitat connectivity considering four progressive dispersal distances (100 km, 200 km, 300 km, 400 km). Elephant response to climate change has been conservative through time with overall slight improvement in climatic suitability in southern and eastern Africa and reduction in western Africa and northern portions of central Africa. Habitat quality followed the distribution of currently suitable areas for the species. We found three major areas with high density of least-cost paths in southern, eastern and western Africa, identifying them as potential areas for increasing the connectivity of elephant populations.

中文翻译：

---

分布建模和多尺度景观连通性突出了热带草原象保护的重要区域

摘要 栖息地连通性是物种长期存在的里程碑，特别是考虑到气候变化和人类活动的影响。在这里，我们研究了气候变化和人类压力对栖息地斑块之间连通性的潜在影响，旨在确定大象保护的优先区域和潜在走廊。我们使用集成建模方法来评估热带草原象 Loxodonta Africana 随时间的潜在气候分布。我们考虑了不同的气候情景，并使用当前潜在的气候适宜性和人类压力来评估该物种的栖息地质量。此外，我们使用栖息地质量和大象斑块的质心来评估考虑四种渐进扩散距离（100 公里、200 公里、300 公里、400 公里）的栖息地连通性。随着时间的推移，大象对气候变化的反应一直是保守的，南部和东部非洲的气候适宜性总体略有改善，而西部非洲和中部非洲北部的气候适宜性有所下降。栖息地质量遵循该物种目前适宜区域的分布。我们在非洲南部、东部和西部发现了三个具有高密度最低成本路径的主要区域，将它们确定为增加大象种群连通性的潜在区域。