More and more countries and regions have turned to the cap-and-trade scheme to control carbon emissions. Proper planning of emission permit trading and green technology implementation is beneficial for a generating company to achieve its emission targets at the lowest possible cost. In this paper, a multistage mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is formulated to help make these decisions, which minimizes the total cost of green technology investment, emission permit trading and holding. Differing from previous research, this model captures the characteristics associated with green technology, notably its implementation lasting as a project for several periods and investment cost declining over time due to technology maturation. The holding cost of emission permits as a new operational resource under the cap-and-trade scheme and auto-regression of the carbon price are also considered in the proposed model. The analytical results suggest the optimal trading period and the trading amount of emission permit as well as the starting period for implementing green technology. It is found that the optimal trading period has nothing to do with initial emission permit quota allocated by regulator. In addition, whether or not to invest in green technology is determined by balancing the investment cost and its resulting benefit of reduced emission. Higher carbon price and unit holding cost of emission permit will incent the generating companies implement green technology. The analysis results also illustrate the specific regions in which cleaner/dirtier green technology will be selected or none of them will be considered. Finally, numerical examples validate the analytical results.

越来越多的国家和地区开始采用总量管制和交易计划来控制碳排放。正确规划排放许可证交易和绿色技术的实施，对于发电公司以最低的成本实现其排放目标是有益的。本文建立了一个多阶段混合整数非线性规划模型来帮助做出这些决策，从而最大程度地减少了绿色技术投资，排放权交易和持有的总成本。与以前的研究不同，该模型捕获了与绿色技术相关的特征，特别是其作为项目持续实施了多个时期，并且由于技术的成熟，投资成本随着时间的推移而下降。提议的模型中还考虑了排放限额的持有成本，将其作为总量管制和交易计划下的一种新的经营资源，并考虑了碳价格的自回归。分析结果表明，最佳的交易期限和排放许可的交易量以及实施绿色技术的起始时期。发现最佳交易期与监管机构分配的初始排放许可配额无关。另外，是否在绿色技术上进行投资取决于投资成本和由此产生的减少排放的收益之间的平衡。较高的碳价和排放许可证的单位持有成本将激励发电公司实施绿色技术。分析结果还说明了将选择清洁/较脏绿色技术的特定区域，或将不考虑其中的任何区域。最后，数值算例验证了分析结果。