Abstract Utilization of marine and terrestrial protected areas is fundamentally important for their acceptance and success. Yet even appropriate uses can negatively impact resources requiring managers to make decisions as to when the impacts become unacceptably large. These decisions can be difficult because the level at which impacts occur may be far below the level at which resource persistence is threatened. In Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, managers must make a recurring decision regarding the number of cruise ships that are allowed to enter the park each year. Cruise ships bring >95% of all visitors to the park but have been involved in several lethal collisions (ship strikes) with humpback whales. Using an individual-based simulation model, we demonstrate that increasing the annual ship volume from current to maximum allowable levels would have negligible impacts on population growth of whales. Over the next 30 years the median number of collisions would likely increase from 3 (95% CI: 0–7) to 4 (1–8) or, worst case scenario, from 5 (0–7) to 8 (3−13), while median annual growth rates would, at most, shift from 4.4% (3.7%–5.2%) to 4.2% (3.5%–4.9%), depending upon assumptions. By comparison, a median of 67 (50–82) ship strikes would need to occur over the next 30 years to threaten the persistence of whales. Confronted with an impact level that is far below what would threaten the conservation of whales, managers are tasked with the decision of placing values on 2 million additional visitors for every additional dead whale. We argue that decision-making related to use-impact trade-offs for protected areas could be more consistent and effective if site-values are defined explicitly, clearly communicated among stakeholders, and linked to biological metrics. Protected areas managers can then utilize monitoring programs to evaluate management effectiveness when the objective is conserving both resources and values.

中文翻译：

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介于可接受和可持续之间：对保护区资源的影响何时变得过大？

摘要 海洋和陆地保护区的利用对于它们的接受和成功至关重要。然而，即使是适当的使用也会对资源产生负面影响，需要管理人员做出决定何时影响变得不可接受。这些决定可能很困难，因为影响发生的程度可能远低于资源持久性受到威胁的程度。在阿拉斯加冰川湾国家公园，管理人员必须反复决定每年允许进入公园的游轮数量。游轮将超过 95% 的游客带到公园，但与座头鲸发生了几次致命的碰撞（船只撞击）。使用基于个人的模拟模型，我们证明，将年度船舶数量从当前增加到最大允许水平对鲸鱼种群增长的影响可以忽略不计。在接下来的 30 年中，碰撞的中位数可能会从 3（95% CI：0-7）增加到 4（1-8），或者在最坏的情况下，从 5（0-7）增加到 8（3-13 )，而中位数年增长率最多会从 4.4% (3.7%–5.2%) 转变为 4.2% (3.5%–4.9%)，具体取决于假设。相比之下，在接下来的 30 年内，平均需要发生 67 (50-82) 次船只撞击，才能威胁鲸鱼的生存。面对远低于威胁鲸鱼保护的影响水平，管理人员的任务是决定为每增加一头死鲸增加 200 万游客的价值。我们认为，如果明确定义场地价值、在利益相关者之间明确沟通并与生物指标相关联，则与保护区使用影响权衡相关的决策可能会更加一致和有效。当目标是保护资源和价值时，保护区管理人员可以利用监测程序来评估管理有效性。