Climate change is a growing threat for global biodiversity, in particular for narrow endemic species. The Mediterranean region, which harbors an exceptional biodiversity, has been identified as one of the most sensitive regions to climate change. Based on a 22-year monitoring period, we analyzed the dynamic and viability of the six extant populations of a narrow endemic plant species of the Mediterranean area, Centaurea corymbosa, to predict their fate under two climatic scenarios. We constructed matrix projection models to calculate current asymptotic growth rates and to perform stochastic projections including both demographic and environmental stochasticity. Neither asymptotic growth rates nor their temporal variance were linked to population size and age at flowering. Randomization tests showed that asymptotic growth rates were significantly different among years but not among populations. An increase in temperature and a decrease in the number of wet days had a negative impact on the whole life-cycle, particularly in the summer period, and thus reduced asymptotic growth rates. Stochastic projections showed that an increased frequency of extreme climatic events increased population extinction risk and decreased mean time to extinction. The warm scenario had a more dramatic impact on population viability than the dry scenario. Management recommendations are proposed to increase population viability of endangered plant species such as C. corymbosa that face climate change.

气候变化对全球生物多样性，特别是对狭窄的特有物种而言，正在构成日益严重的威胁。地中海地区拥有丰富的生物多样性，已被确定为对气候变化最敏感的地区之一。基于22年的监测期，我们分析了地中海地区Centaurea corymbosa的一种狭窄特有植物物种的六个现存种群的动态和生存力。，以预测他们在两种气候情况下的命运。我们构建了矩阵投影模型，以计算当前的渐近增长率并执行包括人口和环境随机性在内的随机预测。渐近生长速率及其时间变化均与开花时的种群大小和年龄无关。随机测试显示，渐进增长率在不同年份之间存在显着差异，但在人群之间没有差异。温度升高和潮湿天数减少对整个生命周期都有负面影响，特别是在夏季，因此降低了渐近生长率。随机预测表明，极端气候事件发生频率的增加增加了种群灭绝的风险，并减少了平均灭绝时间。温暖的情况比干旱的情况对人口生存能力的影响更大。提出了管理建议，以提高濒危植物如面临气候变化的C. corymbosa。