The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

具有高份额的可变可再生能源（VRE）技术的具有成本效益的电力系统的设计需要一种建模方法，该方法要同时代表整个能源系统以及VRE的时空变化和年际变化。在这里，我们将长期能源系统模型进行软链接，该模型探索了从数十年到数十年的新能源系统配置，以及一个具有高时空分辨率的电力系统模型，该模型捕获了VRE在数小时至数年之间的变化。将这种方法应用于英国2050年，我们发现以VRE为中心的电力系统设计对天气的年际变化高度敏感，基于一年的计划可能会导致运营不足以及无法满足长期脱碳的需要目标。然而，确实出现了一些与天气年相对稳定的见解。不断增强传输系统可以降低系统成本，而将VRE集成到系统中所需的储电和灵活发电通常部署在需求中心附近。