Erosion prediction models recreate past scenarios, assess future ones, and determine the best explanatory variables of the soil erosion process. They are widely used and contribute valuable data for landscape management. This paper presents an estimation of soil erosion in the Teotihuacan Valley Basin in central Mexico, assessing its response to biophysical and anthropogenic components during 4 periods within the past 2,000 years. The valley has undergone past and recent anthropogenic erosion and, during the past 2 millennia, has experienced a marked variation in precipitation, variations in land use, soil management, and to a lesser extent, variations in soil type. With the use of the Water Erosion Prediction Project model, we estimated how the above‐mentioned parameters affect soil losses under 4 scenarios: (a) humid conditions (900 mm yr⁻¹) during the Teotihuacan Period (1–650 CE), (b) dry conditions (370 mm yr⁻¹) during the Aztec Period (1325–1521 CE), (c) humid conditions (900 mm yr⁻¹) during the Aztec Period, and (d) present conditions (after 1970 CE; 560 mm yr⁻¹). Comparison of scenarios and a principal component analysis of soil loss according biophysical components showed topography to be the most closely related parameter to soil erosion. Land use and soil type also showed a relationship with soil erosion, particularly during the Aztec Period; climate change did not appear to be the most significant factor in soil loss. Estimation of soil erosion by means of models is an inexpensive way to find answers to future challenges concerning soil erosion in a changing environment.

中文翻译：

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在过去2000年中，对墨西哥中部土壤侵蚀的生物物理和人为影响进行建模

侵蚀预测模型可重现过去的情景，评估未来的情景，并确定土壤侵蚀过程的最佳解释变量。它们被广泛使用，并为景观管理提供了有价值的数据。本文介绍了墨西哥中部特奥蒂瓦坎河谷盆地土壤侵蚀的估计，评估了它在过去2,000年中的4个时期对生物物理和人为因素的响应。该山谷经历了过去和最近的人为侵蚀，在过去的两千年中，经历了明显的降水变化，土地利用变化，土壤管理以及土壤类型变化（程度较小）。利用“水蚀预测项目”模型，我们估算了上述参数在以下4种情况下如何影响土壤流失：（a）潮湿条件（900毫米yr^-1）在特奥蒂瓦坎时期（1,650 CE），（b）在干燥的条件（370 mm yr ^-1）在阿兹台克时期（1325-1521 CE），（c）潮湿的条件（900 mm yr ^-1）在阿兹台克时期，以及（d）当前状况（1970年之后； 560毫米yr ^-1）。对情景的比较和根据生物物理组成的土壤流失主成分分析表明，地形是与土壤侵蚀最密切相关的参数。土地利用和土壤类型也显示出与土壤侵蚀的关系，特别是在阿兹台克时期。气候变化似乎并不是造成土壤流失的最重要因素。通过模型估算土壤侵蚀是一种廉价的方法，可以找到应对不断变化的环境中土壤侵蚀的未来挑战的答案。