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Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach
Science of the Total Environment ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2018-04-05
Ghaffar Ali

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2 °C between 1960 and 1987 and 4 °C between 1988 and 2014, and R2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09 °C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478 mm, and its R2 were 0.34–0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country.



中文翻译:

巴基斯坦的气候变化和相关的空间异质性:使用多学科方法的经验证据

气候变化是一个多维现象,对人们的环境和社会经济状况具有各种影响。在容易受到自然变化影响的农业经济中,其影响更为深远。因此,气候变化以不同的方式直接影响社会,社会必须为此付出代价。着眼于这一事实,本研究的主要目的是使用时间序列数据来真实地调查巴基斯坦气候中的经验变化和空间异质性。随时间推移,巴基斯坦在1961年至2014年间首次使用所有气候变量对气候变化和变异性进行了估算。关于气候变化影响,缓解和适应的研究已有几项;然而,很难确切地观察到哪个省和何时发生了多少变化。利用多学科方法,通过环境,计量经济学和遥感方法的组合来估计绝对变化。此外,使用了自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型来确定气候变化的变化程度,并通过地面实测对信息进行数字化。结果表明,巴基斯坦的平均温度在1960年至1987年之间增加了2°C,在1988年至2014年之间增加了4°C,自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型用于确定气候变化的变化程度,并且通过地面实况调查将信息数字化。结果表明,巴基斯坦的平均温度在1960年至1987年之间增加了2°C,在1988年至2014年之间增加了4°C,自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型用于确定气候变化的变化程度,并且通过地面实况调查将信息数字化。结果表明,巴基斯坦的平均温度在1960年至1987年之间增加了2°C,在1988年至2014年之间增加了4°C,2为0.978。1960年至2014年期间,温度升高了0.09°C。巴基斯坦的年平均降水量增加了478毫米,其R 2为0.34-0.64。从1988年到2014年,巴基斯坦的年平均湿度增加了2.94%,湿度增加了0.97%。值得注意的是,信德省和Bal路支省在降水增加方面表现出显着的空间异质性。统计上所有变量都是有意义的。这将作为巴基斯坦与气候变化相关研究及其在不同部门中的应用的基准信息。这也将为该国的植物育种者和决策者服务。

更新日期:2018-04-08
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