Abstract In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment’s hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

中文翻译：

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模拟气候变化下未测量盆地的水流：景观特征的重要性

摘要 在本文中，我们探讨了地形、地质、土壤和土地覆盖等景观特征如何影响集水区对气候条件变化的响应方式。基于使用分布图方法进行偏差校正的 15 个区域气候模型的集合，使用 HBV 模型模拟了瑞典北部 14 个相邻且相当相似的流域的当前和未来流量。我们在一系列景观特征和预计的水流特征变化之间建立了功能关系。然后将这些用于分析在气候变化背景下假设未测量的盆地中物理扰动的水文后果。我们的分析表明，森林覆盖范围与集水区水文状况不同组成部分对气候条件变化的敏感性之间存在密切联系。这强调了在与气候变化相关的风险和不确定性之前重新定义林业目标和实践的必要性。