Abstract Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

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来自澳大利亚城市洪泛区湖泊沉积记录的历史污染数据的不确定性

摘要 来自水生环境的沉积物核心可以提供有关历史污染水平和来源的宝贵信息。然而，人们对与这些发现相关的不确定性知之甚少。本研究的目的是通过提出一个框架来量化从沉积物核心重建的历史重金属污染记录的不确定性，从而填补这一知识空白。该不确定性框架由六个不确定性来源组成：(1) 金属分析方法的不确定性，(2) 沉积物核心重金属剖面的空间变异性，(3) 子采样间隔，(4) 沉积物年代学，(5)假设床沉积物中的金属水平反映了进入水生系统的金属输入量，以及 (6) 金属的沉积后转化。我们将此不确定性框架应用于澳大利亚东南部（Willsmere Billabong）的城市洪泛湖。我们发现，对于该站点，历史年代重金属剖面的不确定性高达 176%，主要是由于沉积物年代学的不确定性，并且假设沉降的重金属质量相当于进入水体的重金属质量。系统。因此，我们建议未来的研究使用来自水生系统的沉积物核心重建历史污染记录，使用本研究提供的不确定性框架对重建的污染记录中的不确定性进行调查。