Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change^1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions^3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow^5,6,7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

冰川质量损失是造成海平面变化^1,2，高山区^3,4的边坡失稳以及季节变化和河流流量^{5,6,7的关键因素}。因此，了解冰川变化的原因，机制和时标对于确定缓解和适应成功的战略至关重要。在这里，我们使用耦合模型比较项目第5阶段输出的温度和降水场来推动冰川演化模型，从而量化对未来气候变化的质量响应。我们发现当代冰川的质量与当前的气候不平衡，并且已经对过去的温室气体排放做出了36±8％的质量损失。因此，减少未来的排放只会对二十一世纪的冰川质量变化产生非常有限的影响。1.5和2 K变暖情景之间的显着差异在二十一世纪内积累的冰川的海平面贡献中是不可检测的。在长期，