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Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
Nature Geoscience ( IF 15.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-02-05 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y
James A. Screen , Clara Deser , Doug M. Smith , Xiangdong Zhang , Russell Blackport , Paul J. Kushner , Thomas Oudar , Kelly E. McCusker , Lantao Sun

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.



中文翻译:

跨气候模型的大气对北极海冰损失的响应的一致性和差异

北极海冰的减少是人为气候变化的组成部分。海冰的流失已经对北极社区和生态系统产生了重大影响。它作为北极以外气候变化原因的作用也引起了许多科学兴趣。越来越多的证据表明北极海冰的流失会影响整个北半球的天气和气候。北极海冰损失的远程影响只能使用模拟海洋,海冰,陆地和大气之间相互作用的模型来正确表示。六个不同模型的此类实验的综合表明,一致的半球范围的大气变暖,在中高纬度对流层中最强;冬季阿留申低点和大多数情况下西伯利亚高点的加剧;冰岛低点的减弱;冬季中纬度西风的强度减弱和南移。大气环流响应似乎对海冰流失的程度和地理模式敏感,在某些情况下,还对背景气候状态敏感。但是,目前尚不清楚当前的气候模式是否对海冰变化反应太弱。我们主张采用不同的模型和观测条件来进行协调的实验,以量化对北极海冰损失的气候响应。目前尚不清楚当前的气候模式是否对海冰变化反应太弱。我们主张采用不同的模型和观测条件来进行协调的实验,以量化对北极海冰损失的气候响应。目前尚不清楚当前的气候模式是否对海冰变化反应太弱。我们主张采用不同的模型和观测条件来进行协调的实验,以量化对北极海冰损失的气候响应。

更新日期:2018-03-17
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