Starving ocean productivity Projected increases in greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a thousand years or more. As the climate warms, westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere will strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters will warm, and sea ice will disappear. Moore et al. suggest that one effect of these changes will be a dramatic decrease in marine biological productivity (see the Perspective by Laufkötter and Gruber). This decrease will result from a global-scale redistribution of nutrients, with a net transfer to the deep ocean. By 2300, this could drive declines in fisheries yields by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Science, this issue p. 1139; see also p. 1103 Multicentury climate warming could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium. Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

中文翻译：

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持续的气候变暖导致海洋生物生产力下降

海洋生产力饥饿 预计温室气体排放的增加可能会抑制海洋生物生产力一千年或更长时间。随着气候变暖，南半球的西风将加强并向极地​​转移，地表水将变暖，海冰将消失。摩尔等人。表明这些变化的一个影响将是海洋生物生产力的急剧下降（参见 Laufkötter 和 Gruber 的观点）。这种减少将是全球范围内营养物质的重新分配，以及净转移到深海的结果。到 2300 年，这可能导致全球渔业产量下降 20% 以上，北大西洋渔业产量下降近 60%。科学，这个问题 p。第1139章 另见第。1103 多世纪气候变暖可能会抑制海洋生物生产力达一千年。到 2100 年的气候变化预测可能会错过后来因气候变暖的累积影响而出现的物理-生物地球化学反馈。在到 2300 年的耦合气候模拟中，西风增强并向极地​​转移，地表水变暖，海冰消失，导致南大洋发生强烈的养分捕获。捕集推动了全球范围的养分重新分配，净转移到深海。随着 30°S 以北地表养分减少，初级生产和碳输出量稳步下降（到 2300 年分别下降 24% 和 41%）。受低营养水平生产力限制的潜在渔业产量在全球范围内下降 20% 以上，在北大西洋下降近 60%。