Abstract Over the last few decades, global warming is prompting phenological changes in numerous plant species across Europe, and a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations has been detected. This study, focused on the most frequent pollen types from arboreal and herbaceous species in the airborne spectrum of Jaen (southern Spain), revealed significant changes in airborne pollen intensity and duration of the pollen season over the 23-year study period. Here Cupressaceae, Olea, Pinus, Platanus, Quercus as arboreal taxa and Plantago as herbaceous taxa were the most important with notable changes of at least three pollen season characteristics. Airborne pollen trends from arboreal taxa with high to very high allergenic potential are rising in line with the local temperature increasing trend, and their pollen seasons tend to end later and last longer. However, both the pollen concentrations and the duration of the pollen season of some herbaceous taxa are declining. The climate conditions projected for south Europe under different greenhouse emissions scenarios could continue to prompt greater pollen release and longer pollen season in tree species, especially those that flowering in winter and early spring, but these warming trends might be adverse for the local development of some herbaceous species and favorable for others sharing the same ecological niche. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on health.

中文翻译：

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哈恩（西班牙南部）风媒花粉和花粉季节相关特征的趋势：23 年展望

摘要 在过去的几十年里，全球变暖正在促使欧洲许多植物物种发生物候变化，并且已经检测到空气中花粉浓度升高的趋势。这项研究重点关注哈恩（西班牙南部）空气传播谱中树栖和草本植物中最常见的花粉类型，揭示了在 23 年的研究期间，空气传播的花粉强度和花粉季节持续时间发生了显着变化。其中柏科、油橄榄、松属、悬铃木、栎属作为树栖类群，车前草作为草本类群最为重要，至少三个花粉季节特征发生显着变化。来自具有高到非常高过敏潜力的树栖类群的空气传播花粉趋势随着当地温度升高趋势而上升，它们的花粉季节往往会更晚结束，持续时间更长。然而，一些草本类群的花粉浓度和花粉季节的持续时间都在下降。在不同温室排放情景下预测的南欧气候条件可能会继续促使更多的花粉释放和更长的花粉季节，尤其是那些在冬季和早春开花的树种，但这些变暖趋势可能不利于当地一些树种的发展。草本物种，有利于共享相同生态位的其他物种。如果类似的变暖趋势伴随着长期的气候变化，则可能会出现更长的季节性过敏原暴露时间，从而对健康产生影响。在不同温室排放情景下预测的南欧气候条件可能会继续促使更多的花粉释放和更长的花粉季节，尤其是那些在冬季和早春开花的树种，但这些变暖趋势可能不利于当地一些树种的发展。草本物种，有利于共享相同生态位的其他物种。如果类似的变暖趋势伴随着长期的气候变化，则可能会出现更长的季节性过敏原暴露时间，从而对健康产生影响。在不同温室排放情景下预测的南欧气候条件可能会继续促使更多的花粉释放和更长的花粉季节，尤其是那些在冬季和早春开花的树种，但这些变暖趋势可能不利于当地一些树种的发展。草本物种，有利于共享相同生态位的其他物种。如果类似的变暖趋势伴随着长期的气候变化，则可能会出现更长的季节性过敏原暴露时间，从而对健康产生影响。但这些变暖趋势可能不利于某些草本物种的当地发展，而有利于其他具有相同生态位的草本物种。如果类似的变暖趋势伴随着长期的气候变化，则可能会出现更长的季节性过敏原暴露时间，从而对健康产生影响。但这些变暖趋势可能不利于某些草本物种的当地发展，而有利于其他具有相同生态位的草本物种。如果类似的变暖趋势伴随着长期的气候变化，则可能会出现更长的季节性过敏原暴露时间，从而对健康产生影响。