The harmful dinoflagellate, Karlodnium veneficum, has been implicated in fish-kill and other toxic, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in waters worldwide. Blooms of K. veneficum are known to be related to coastal nutrient enrichment but the relationship is complex because this HAB taxon relies not only on dissolved nutrients but also particulate prey, both of which have also changed over time. Here, applying cross-correlations of climate-related physical factors, nutrients and prey, with abundance of K. veneficum over a 10-year (2002–2011) period, a synthesis of the interactive effects of multiple factors on this species was developed for Chesapeake Bay, where blooms of the HAB have been increasing. Significant upward trends in the time series of K. veneficum were observed in the mesohaline stations of the Bay, but not in oligohaline tributary stations. For the mesohaline regions, riverine sources of nutrients with seasonal lags, together with particulate prey with zero lag, explained 15%–46% of the variation in the K. veneficum time series. For the oligohaline regions, nutrients and particulate prey generally showed significant decreasing trends with time, likely a reflection of nutrient reduction efforts. A conceptual model of mid-Bay blooms is presented, in which K. veneficum, derived from the oceanic end member of the Bay, may experience enhanced growth if it encounters prey originating from the tributaries with different patterns of nutrient loading and which are enriched in nitrogen. For all correlation models developed herein, prey abundance was a primary factor in predicting K. veneficum abundance.

有害的鞭毛藻（Karodnium v​​eneficum）与世界各地水域的鱼类杀灭和其他有毒有害藻华（HAB）事件有关。花开的K. veneficum被称为是与沿海养分富集，但关系是复杂的，因为这个HAB类群不仅依赖于溶解的营养成分，而且微粒的猎物，它们也都随着时间而改变。在这里，利用气候相关的物理因素，养分和猎物的互相关性，以及在十年（2002-2011年）期间丰富的K. veneficum，开发了多种因素对该物种相互作用相互作用的综合体，切萨皮克湾（Chesapeake Bay），HAB的花朵一直在增加。时间序列的显着上升趋势在海湾的中卤站中观察到K. veneficum，但在少碱支流站中未观察到K. veneficum。在中盐带地区，江河带季节性滞后的养分来源以及零滞后的颗粒捕食，解释了K. veneficum时间序列变化的15％–46％。对于低盐度地区，养分和颗粒物的捕食通常会随着时间的推移显示出明显的下降趋势，这可能反映了养分减少的努力。提出了中海湾水华的概念模型，其中K. veneficum，如果来自海湾的海洋末端成员的碳氢化合物遇到来自养分不同养分模式且富含氮的支流的猎物，则其生长可能会增强。对于本文开发的所有相关模型，猎物的丰度是预测K. veneficum丰度的主要因素。