Research shows that the volume shrinkage of the underground storage cavern in salt rock is the basic reason why surface settlement appears above storage caverns. In order to further study the quantitative relationship between cavity volume shrinkage and surface settlement, this paper starts from the form of the reservoir surface settlement curve, selects Gaussian function to match the profile curve of the surface settlement basin above the single cavity gas storage, proposes a settlement prediction method that is similar to the Peck curve of tunnel surface settlement and establishes a space prediction model of surface settlement for storage cavern which can reflect directly the relationship between cavity shrinkage of storage cavern and surface deformation. Then with the consideration of surface settlement changing over time, and through introducing the analytical formula of volume shrinkage of the cavern in the stage of steady creep, the predicting analytical formula of annual subsidence rate in the reservoir is obtained and the time-space prediction model of surface settlement above gas storage cavern in salt rock is established. Finally, the paper takes a storage cavern in Yunying salt mine as an example, compares the result of prediction model with the result of numerical simulation to verify the accuracy of this prediction model and proves its feasibility. This research provides a simple and reliable prediction method for the surface settlement prediction during the operation of underground storage cavern in salt rock and has an important guiding significance for the long-term safe operation of underground storage caverns and environmental protection in mining areas.

研究表明，盐岩地下储藏室的体积收缩是在储藏室上方出现地表沉降的根本原因。为了进一步研究腔体体积收缩与地表沉降之间的定量关系，本文从储层表面沉降曲线的形式入手，选择高斯函数来拟合单腔储气层上方地表盆地的剖面曲线，提出建立了与隧道地表的佩克曲线相似的沉降预测方法，建立了储藏洞面沉降的空间预测模型，该模型可以直接反映储藏洞洞收缩与地表变形之间的关系。然后考虑到表面沉降随时间变化，通过引入稳定蠕变阶段溶洞体积收缩的解析公式，得到储层年沉降速率的预测解析公式，建立了盐岩储气溶洞上方地面沉降的时空预测模型。已确立的。最后，以云营盐矿的一个储藏室为例，将预测模型的结果与数值模拟结果进行了比较，验证了该预测模型的准确性，并证明了其可行性。