The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO₂ concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO₂ concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change.

由于气候变化，先前对未来死亡率预测的研究之间的异质性常常阻碍了比较和综合由此产生的影响。为了应对这一挑战，本研究引入了一种新颖的方法，可以根据不同的基线和预测期以及气候情景对预测研究的结果进行归一化，从而促进比较和综合。这项研究回顾了以前的15项研究，这些研究涉及“代表性浓度途径”下与预计的气候变化相关的死亡率。为了综合他们的结果，我们首先回顾了影响先前研究报告结果的重要研究设计要素。然后，我们通过CO ₂对报告的结果进行归一化为了消除基线期，预测期和气候方案选择的影响而进行集中。对于全球25个地点，全球CO ₂浓度每增加100 ppm，归因于温度的死亡率的归一化百分比变化范围为41.9％至330％，而总死亡率的归一化百分比变化范围为0.3％至4.8％。这项工作中提出的归一化方法将指导未来的研究，以归一化的形式提供其结果，并促进研究综合，以加深我们对气候变化风险的理解。