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Bringing it all together: linking measures to secure nations’ food supply
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability ( IF 6.6 ) Pub Date : 2018-02-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.006
Matti Kummu , Marianela Fader , Dieter Gerten , Joseph HA Guillaume , Mika Jalava , Jonas Jägermeyr , Stephan Pfister , Miina Porkka , Stefan Siebert , Olli Varis

A growing human population and changing consumption patterns threaten adequate food supply globally by increasing pressure on already scarce land and water resources. Various measures have been suggested to sustainably secure future food supply: diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap of nutrients as well as water. As yet, they have been assessed separately or, if combined, at a global or macro-region level only. In this paper, we carry out a review and integration of this literature to provide a first estimate of the combined potential of these measures at country level. The overall potential increase in global food supply was estimated to be 111% and 223% at moderate and high implementation levels, respectively. Projected global food demand in 2050 could thus be met, but deficiencies in various countries in Africa and the Middle East appear inevitable without changes to trade or adapting with future innovations. Further, this analysis highlights country-level management opportunities for each intervention studied. Several potential future research opportunities are proposed to improve integration of measures.



中文翻译:

汇集一切:将措施联系起来以确保国家的粮食供应

人口的增长和消费方式的变化,对已经稀缺的土地和水资源施加了越来越大的压力,威胁着全球充足的粮食供应。已经提出了各种措施来可持续地确保未来的粮食供应:改变饮食,减少食物损失并缩小营养素和水的产量差距。迄今为止,已经对它们进行了单独评估,或者如果进行了综合评估,则仅在全球或宏观区域一级进行了评估。在本文中,我们对这些文献进行了回顾和整合,以初步估计这些措施在国家层面的综合潜力。在中等和高实施水平下,全球粮食供应的总体潜在增长估计分别为111%和223%。因此,可以满足2050年预计的全球粮食需求,但是,如果不改变贸易或适应未来的创新,非洲和中东各国的缺陷似乎是不可避免的。此外,该分析突出显示了所研究的每种干预措施在国家一级的管理机会。提出了一些潜在的未来研究机会,以改善措施的整合。

更新日期:2018-02-22
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