Natural systems are declining at an unparalleled rate. To prompt conservation of ecosystems, the IUCN has developed a framework to assess ecosystem threat. By 2025, the IUCN aims to assess the collapse risk of all the world's ecosystems using this framework. This increases the pressure to refine tractable methods to predict collapse. However, there has been no systematic review of whether predicting collapse is possible and practical, which is impeding consistent and comparable assessments of ecosystem threat. Here, we conduct such a review and highlight six areas of concern – stemming from the findings of our review – in need of immediate attention to progress work on assessing ecosystem collapse and the application of such assessments to the management of at‐risk ecosystems. These are: (1) better conceptualizations of ecosystems, (2) better conceptualizations of ecosystem collapse, (3) improved integration of theory, experimentation, and practice, (4) improved surrogates and early warning indicators of ecosystem collapse, (5) the implementation of management experiments to enhance understanding of ecosystem stability, and (6) ensuring IUCN Red List of Ecosystems listings result in the conservation of biodiversity.

中文翻译：

---

应对全球生态系统崩溃挑战

自然系统正在以无与伦比的速度下降。为了促进生态系统的保护，自然保护联盟已经建立了一个评估生态系统威胁的框架。IUCN计划到2025年使用该框架评估世界所有生态系统的崩溃风险。这增加了改进易于处理的方法来预测坍塌的压力。但是，关于预测倒塌是否可行和可行还没有系统的回顾。，这妨碍了对生态系统威胁的一致且可比较的评估。在这里，我们进行了这样的审查，并着重指出了六个值得关注的领域-基于审查的结果-需要立即关注评估生态系统崩溃的进展工作以及将此类评估应用于高风险生态系统的管理。它们是：（1）更好的生态系统概念，（2）更好的生态系统崩溃概念，（3）改进了理论，实验和实践的集成，（4）改进了生态系统崩溃的替代指标和预警指标，（5）实施管理实验，以加深对生态系统稳定性的了解，以及（6）确保IUCN生态系统清单红色清单保护生物多样性。