Objective

Although studies have found that youth exposed to violence are more likely to carry guns than non-exposed youth, this association could be due to common causal factors or other pre-existing differences between individuals. In this study, within-individual change models were used to determine whether juvenile offenders exhibit an increased propensity to carry a firearm after being exposed to gun violence and/or non-gun violence. The advantage of this approach is all time-invariant factors are eliminated as potential confounders.

Method

A sample of 1,170 racially/ethnically diverse male juvenile offenders was recruited in Arizona and Pennsylvania (14–19 years old at recruitment). Participants were interviewed every 6 months for 3 years followed by 4 annual assessments. The outcome was gun carrying and the primary predictors were exposure to gun violence and non-gun violence. Time-varying covariates included exposure to peers who carried guns, exposure to peers who engaged in other (non-gun) criminal acts, developmental changes in gun carrying, and changes in gun carrying from incarceration or institutionalization.

Results

Adolescent offenders were significantly more likely to carry a gun in recall periods after exposure to gun violence, but not after exposure to non-gun violence. Effect of gun violence on carrying was significant throughout adolescence and young adulthood and could not be accounted for by time-varying and time-invariant confounders.

Conclusions

Interventions to decrease illegal gun carrying should target young men in medical and mental health settings who experience or witness gun violence and those living in communities with high rates of gun violence.

中文翻译：

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与枪支和非枪支有关的暴力暴露以及随后在男性少年犯中携带枪支的风险

客观的

尽管研究发现，遭受暴力侵害的年轻人比未受暴力侵害的年轻人携带枪支的可能性更大，但这种关联可能是由于共同的因果因素或个人之间其他先前存在的差异。在这项研究中，使用个人内部变化模型来确定未成年人犯罪者在遭受枪支暴力和/或非枪支暴力后，携带枪支的倾向是否增加。这种方法的优点是消除了所有时不变因素，将其作为潜在的混杂因素。

方法

在亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州（招募时年龄为14-19岁），招募了1170名种族/种族不同的男性少年犯罪者。参与者每6个月接受一次面谈，为期3年，然后进行4次年度评估。结果是携带枪支，主要预测因素是枪支暴力和非枪支暴力。随时间变化的协变量包括暴露于携带枪支的同伴，暴露于从事其他（非枪支）犯罪行为的同伴，携带枪支的发展变化以及因监禁或制度化而引起的携带枪支的变化。

结果

青少年犯罪者在遭受枪支暴力事件后的召回期间携带枪支的可能性显着更高，但在遭受非枪支暴力事件之后则没有。枪支暴力对携带的影响在整个青春期和成年时期都很显着，并且时变和时不变的混杂因素无法解释。

结论

减少非法携带枪支的干预措施应针对经历或目击枪支暴力以及生活在枪支暴力发生率较高的社区中的医学和心理健康年轻人。