Abstract Illegal wildlife trade represents a major threat to biodiversity. Recent wildlife consumption trends across Asia have shown shifts in preference towards new species, such as Sunda pangolin, and increased volumes of consumption for longer-traded species, such as tiger. These trends are widely thought to be a result of the higher levels of wealth generated from the impressive economic growth experienced across Asia. This raises important questions regarding the role that economic growth plays as a driver of poaching on source populations of highly-prized species. As a first step to answering these, we investigate trade dynamics related to the poaching of tigers and their principal prey using a long-term biological and economic data set. The fluctuating poaching patterns recorded for tiger prey, which are locally consumed for their meat, showed no association with rising domestic beef prices, the most likely substitutable protein source. However for tiger, annual poaching rates were positively and significantly correlated with changes in local tiger skin prices that, in turn, were closely correlated with annual GDP changes in the key consumer countries. Our preliminary analysis raises further questions around the causal pathways through which rising affluence and extinction risk are linked; a question that should be posed for a wide set of species. Thus, the strong regional leadership that has enabled high economic growth across Asia and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty should now be urgently directed to tackling illegal wildlife trade and, as a priority, to closing domestic and international trafficking routes.

中文翻译：

---

亚洲经济增长及其对印度尼西亚老虎的影响

摘要 非法野生动物贸易是对生物多样性的重大威胁。亚洲最近的野生动物消费趋势表明，人们对新物种的偏好发生了转变，例如巽他穿山甲，并且对贸易时间较长的物种（例如老虎）的消费量有所增加。人们普遍认为，这些趋势是由于亚洲经历了令人印象深刻的经济增长而产生的更高水平的财富。这提出了关于经济增长作为偷猎高价值物种来源种群的驱动因素的重要问题。作为回答这些问题的第一步，我们使用长期生物和经济数据集调查与偷猎老虎及其主要猎物相关的贸易动态。老虎猎物记录的波动偷猎模式，老虎猎物在当地被食用，以获取它们的肉，显示与国内牛肉价格上涨无关，这是最有可能的可替代蛋白质来源。然而，对于老虎来说，年度偷猎率与当地虎皮价格的变化呈显着正相关，而后者又与主要消费国的年度 GDP 变化密切相关。我们的初步分析提出了进一步的问题，围绕着日益增加的富裕程度和灭绝风险之间的因果关系；一个应该为广泛的物种提出的问题。因此，推动亚洲经济高速增长并使数亿人摆脱贫困的强大区域领导力现在应该紧急用于解决非法野生动植物贸易，并作为优先事项关闭国内和国际贩运路线。