Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis.,The Lancet

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Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis.
The Lancet ( IF 98.4 ) Pub Date : 2018-03-01 , DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30024-x
Freya M Shearer ₁ , Joshua Longbottom ₁ , Annie J Browne ₁ , David M Pigott ₂ , Oliver J Brady ₃ , Moritz U G Kraemer ₄ , Fatima Marinho ₅ , Sergio Yactayo ₆ , Valdelaine E M de Araújo ₇ , Aglaêr A da Nóbrega ₇ , Nancy Fullman ₂ , Sarah E Ray ₂ , Jonathan F Mosser ₈ , Jeffrey D Stanaway ₂ , Stephen S Lim ₂ , Robert C Reiner ₂ , Catherine L Moyes ₁ , Simon I Hay ₉ , Nick Golding ₁₀

Affiliation

Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
University of State of Rio de Janeiro, Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
World Health Organization, Infectious Hazard Management, Geneva, Switzerland.
Secretariat of Health Surveillance of the Ministry of Health of Brazil, Brazil.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Seattle Children's Hospital/University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Quantitative & Applied Ecology Group, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.

Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies.

中文翻译：

全球现有和潜在的黄热病感染风险区：建模分析。

黄热病病例报告不足，疾病的确切分布尚不清楚。有一种有效的疫苗可用，但需要更多信息来了解应针对风险区内的哪些人群实施干预措施。安哥拉、刚果民主共和国和巴西大量爆发黄热病，再加上其主要城市媒介埃及伊蚊的范围在全球范围内扩大，表明黄热病有进一步国际传播的趋势。本研究的目的是估计该疾病的当代分布和传播到新地区的潜力，以帮助制定最佳控制和预防策略。

更新日期：2018-02-10

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