The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

中文翻译：

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极地涡移引起的欧亚大陆平流层臭氧损失。

《蒙特利尔议定书》已成功地限制了主要的消耗臭氧层物质的排放，因此，预计本世纪将恢复平流层中臭氧的浓度。但是，北半球区域臭氧的恢复速度存在很大的不确定性。在这里，我们确定了北半球总臭氧层中的欧亚-北美偶极子模式，分别显示了整个欧亚大陆和北美洲的负和正总臭氧层异常中心。这种模式的积极趋势说明，过去三十年来欧亚大陆上的总柱状臭氧减少量有所增加，这与极涡向欧亚大陆的转移密切相关。多个化学-气候模型模拟表明，冬季后期欧亚大陆-北美洲偶极子的积极趋势可能会在不久的将来继续。我们的发现表明，预期在冬季末恢复的臭氧不仅会对消耗臭氧层的物质减少敏感，而且对极涡的变化也很敏感，并且在北半球温带的某些地区可能会大大延迟。