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Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics
Nature Energy ( IF 49.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-01-08 , DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0058-z
Benjamin Schäfer , Christian Beck , Kazuyuki Aihara , Dirk Witthaut , Marc Timme

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today’s frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.



中文翻译:

具有Lévy稳定定律和超统计量的非高斯电网频率波动

多种类型的波动会影响电网的集体动力,从而挑战其稳健的运行。波动是由不同的过程引起的,例如动态变化的需求,能源交易和可再生能源的增加份额。在这里,我们分析了电网频率波动的动态和统计基础的原理。考虑到一系列电网的频率时间序列,包括北美,日本和欧洲的电网,我们发现与高斯性有很大的偏差,最好用Lévy稳定和q来描述。-高斯分布。我们提出了一个粗略的框架来分析表征任意噪声分布的影响,以及一种系统地解释粗尾和偏斜分布的超统计方法。我们认为能源交易是当今频率波动的重要因素,而电网的有效阻尼是控制因素,可降低波动风险,并增强小型电网的影响。

更新日期:2018-01-09
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