Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

尽管没有在气候模型中进行考虑，但极端气候事件引起的可感知风险可能会诱发行为变化，从而改变温室气体排放量。在这里，我们将C-ROADS气候模型与行为变化的社会模型联系起来，以检验感知到的风险与排放行为之间的相互作用如何影响预计的气候变化。我们的气候和社会模型相结合，导致到2100年全球温度变化范围为3.4–6.2°C，而仅C-ROADS模型的温度变化为4.9°C，从而导致行为不确定性与物理不确定性相似（2.8 °C对3.5°C）。对温度影响最大的模型组件是对极端事件做出反应的功能形式，感知到的行为控制与感知到的社会规范的相互作用，和导致持续减排的行为。我们的结果表明，强调极端事件对气候变化和基础设施缓解的适当归因的政策可能会最大程度地减少气候变化。