Abstract Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere has increased since the beginning of the industrial era, with dramatic effects on climate change. Transportation is one of the main sources of GHGs, with more than two-thirds of transport-related GHG emissions attributable to road vehicles. Any policy that aims to reduce GHG emissions needs robust measuring methods that guarantee the quality and reliability of primary data and estimates. However, these estimates are subject to uncertainty, both at the stage of compiling accounting tables and at the stage of using this information to formulate a specific policy question. This paper considers how to reduce uncertainty in estimating GHG emissions from road transportation, with specific reference to a regional emissions inventory in Italy. We propose the application of a use-chain model that can tackle uncertainty in measuring GHG emissions by enhancing the quality of the emissions data registry in the inventory. This new metric, which we call emission value at risk (VaR), draws from methodologies and concepts employed in the insurance and financial sectors. Moreover, additional assessments are performed, integrating the inventory data with those available in the regional energy balance and disaggregated sectoral economic dataset. The results show that a sound accounting method enables uncertainty in emission data to be taken into account, thus improving the design of appropriate strategies to reduce GHG emissions.

中文翻译：

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评估道路运输中温室气体的直接和间接排放，同时考虑到排放清单中不确定性的作用

摘要 自工业时代开始以来，大气中的温室气体 (GHG) 浓度不断增加，对气候变化产生了巨大影响。交通是温室气体的主要来源之一，超过三分之二的交通相关温室气体排放可归因于道路车辆。任何旨在减少温室气体排放的政策都需要强有力的测量方法来保证原始数据和估算的质量和可靠性。然而，这些估计在编制会计表的阶段和在使用这些信息制定具体政策问题的阶段都存在不确定性。本文考虑了如何减少估算道路交通温室气体排放的不确定性，具体参考意大利的区域排放清单。我们建议应用使用链模型，该模型可以通过提高清单中排放数据登记册的质量来解决测量温室气体排放的不确定性。我们将这一新指标称为风险排放值 (VaR)，它借鉴了保险和金融部门采用的方法和概念。此外，还进行了额外的评估，将清单数据与区域能源平衡和分类部门经济数据集中的数据相结合。结果表明，合理的核算方法可以考虑排放数据中的不确定性，从而改进减少温室气体排放的适当策略的设计。我们将其称为风险排放值 (VaR)，源自保险和金融部门采用的方法和概念。此外，还进行了额外的评估，将清单数据与区域能源平衡和分类部门经济数据集中的数据相结合。结果表明，合理的核算方法可以考虑排放数据中的不确定性，从而改进减少温室气体排放的适当策略的设计。我们将其称为风险排放值 (VaR)，源自保险和金融部门采用的方法和概念。此外，还进行了额外的评估，将清单数据与区域能源平衡和分类部门经济数据集中的数据相结合。结果表明，合理的核算方法可以考虑排放数据的不确定性，从而改进减少温室气体排放的适当策略的设计。