Despite the existence of effective rabies vaccines for dogs, dog-transmitted human rabies persists and has reemerged in Africa. Two consecutive dog vaccination campaigns took place in Chad in 2012 and 2013 (coverage of 71% in both years) in the capital city of N’Djaména, as previously published. We developed a deterministic model of dog-human rabies transmission fitted to weekly incidence data of rabid dogs and exposed human cases in N’Djaména. Our analysis showed that the effective reproductive number, that is, the number of new dogs infected by a rabid dog, fell to below one through November 2014. The modeled incidence of human rabies exposure fell to less than one person per million people per year. A phylodynamic estimation of the effective reproductive number from 29 canine rabies virus genetic sequences of the viral N-protein confirmed the results of the deterministic transmission model, implying that rabies transmission between dogs was interrupted for 9 months. However, new dog rabies cases appeared earlier than the transmission and phylodynamic models predicted. This may have been due to the continuous movement of rabies-exposed dogs into N’Djaména from outside the city. Our results show that canine rabies transmission to humans can be interrupted in an African city with currently available dog rabies vaccines, provided that the vaccination area includes larger adjacent regions, and local communities are informed and engaged.

尽管存在用于狗的有效狂犬病疫苗，但狗传播的人类狂犬病仍然存在，并在非洲重新流行。如前所述，2012年和2013年，乍得在首都恩贾梅纳（N'Djaména）进行了两次连续的狗疫苗接种运动（两年覆盖率均为71％）。我们开发了一种犬-人狂犬病传播的确定性模型，该模型适合于N'Djaména中狂犬病犬和暴露的人类病例的每周发病率数据。我们的分析表明，到2014年11月，有效生殖数量（即被狂犬病感染的新狗的数量）降至1只以下。人类狂犬病暴发的模型发病率降至每年每百万人中只有不到一个人。对病毒N蛋白的29种犬狂犬病病毒基因序列进行有效生殖数量的系统动力学估计，证实了确定性传播模型的结果，这意味着狂犬病在狗之间的传播被中断了9个月。但是，新的犬狂犬病病例比传播和系统动力学模型预测的要早。这可能是由于狂犬病暴发的狗不断从城外转移到恩贾梅纳。我们的研究结果表明，只要疫苗接种区域包括较大的邻近区域，并且告知当地社区并让他们参与，就可以使用目前可用的狗狂犬病疫苗在非洲城市中断犬狂犬病向人类的传播。这意味着狂犬病之间的狂犬病传播被中断了9个月。但是，新的犬狂犬病病例比传播和系统动力学模型预测的要早。这可能是由于狂犬病暴发的狗不断从城外转移到恩贾梅纳。我们的研究结果表明，只要疫苗接种区域包括较大的相邻区域，并且告知当地社区并进行干预，在使用当前可用的狗狂犬病疫苗的非洲城市中，犬狂犬病的传播就可以中断。这意味着狂犬病之间的狂犬病传播被中断了9个月。但是，新的犬狂犬病病例比传播和系统动力学模型预测的要早。这可能是由于狂犬病暴发的狗不断从城外转移到恩贾梅纳。我们的研究结果表明，只要疫苗接种区域包括较大的邻近区域，并且告知当地社区并积极参与，在使用当前可用的狗狂犬病疫苗的非洲城市中，犬狂犬病的传播就可以中断。