Background

Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence.

Methods

We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986–2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026–2045) and one in the far future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009–2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature.

Results

During the sample period 2009–2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26 °C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8–23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1 deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78–41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38 deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00–105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future.

Conclusion

These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下安特卫普的炎热与健康：预计影响和预防意义

背景

夏季过热是欧洲几个城市的一个严重的环境健康问题。如果没有根据当地相关证据进行充分预防，在气候变化情景下，与高温相关的死亡率和发病率可能会增加。

方法

我们对 1986 年至 2015 年期间安特卫普夏季的城市气候进行了建模，并根据代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 8.5。然后，我们分析了 2009 年至 2013 年期间气温与死亡率以及入院率之间的关系，并估计了在气候和人口变化的情况下，假设没有适应和基于适应的情况下不久的将来和遥远的未来时期的预计死亡率。恒定的阈值百分位数温度。

结果

在 2009 年至 2013 年的样本期间，我们观察到每日死亡率从每日最高温度 26 °C（即每日最高温度系列的第 89 个百分位）开始增加。这一时期的年平均高温相关死亡率为 13.4 人（95% CI：3.8–23.4）。对于因心肺原因入院的病例，没有观察到高温的影响。在没有适应环境的情况下，在不久的将来，年平均与高温相关的死亡率将乘以 1.7 倍（每年 24.1 例死亡 CI 95%：6.78–41.94），在遥远的将来则乘以 4.5 倍（每年 60.38 例死亡）年 CI 95%：17.00–105.11）。在热适应情景下，死亡率在近期或遥远的将来都不会显着增加。

结论

这些结果强调了从长远角度预防热暴露的公共卫生的重要性，特别是在气候变化的背景下，以及根据当地相关证据校准现有预防活动的重要性。