Conservation management is strongly shaped by the interpretation of population trends. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, aerial total counts indicate a striking increase in elephant abundance compared to all previous censuses. We developed a simple age‐structured population model to guide interpretation of this reported increase, focusing on three possible causes: (1) in situ population growth, (2) immigration from Kenya, and (3) differences in counting methodologies over time. No single cause, nor the combination of two causes, adequately explained the observed population growth. Under the assumptions of maximum in situ growth and detection bias of 12.7% in previous censuses, conservative estimates of immigration from Kenya were between 250 and 1,450 individuals. Our results highlight the value of considering demography when drawing conclusions about the causes of population trends. The issues we illustrate apply to other species that have undergone dramatic changes in abundance, as well as many elephant populations.

中文翻译：

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用人口统计学模型告知空中总计数：塞伦盖蒂大象的人口增长并未完全由人口统计学解释

人口趋势的解释强烈影响着保护管理。在坦桑尼亚的塞伦盖蒂（Serengeti）生态系统中，与以往的所有人口普查相比，空中总数表明大象的数量显着增加。我们开发了一个简单的年龄结构的人口模型，以指导对这一报告的增加的解释，重点关注三个可能的原因：（1）原位人口增长，（2）从肯尼亚移民和（3）计数方法随时间的差异。没有单一原因或两种原因的结合都不能充分解释观察到的人口增长。在以前的普查中最大原位生长和检测偏差为12.7％的假设下，从肯尼亚移民的保守估计在250至1,450个人之间。我们的结果突出了在得出有关人口趋势原因的结论时考虑人口统计学的价值。我们所说明的问题适用于其他物种的丰度发生了巨大变化的物种，以及许多大象种群。