Abstract Rapid growth in the global penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems means electricity network operators and electricity generators alike are increasingly concerned with the short-term solar forecasting (nowcasting) of solar irradiance. This paper proposes a methodology that considers a varying number of available reference PV systems for supporting satellite-derived PV power real-time nowcasting. We evaluate conventional satellite-only and upscaling-only PV fleet estimate methodologies and compare them to two newly developed correction and hybrid cases. When using only a single reference PV system to estimate the aggregated power of 48 independent target PV systems for the location of Canberra, Australia; we show that the newly proposed correction or hybrid cases improve the performance of the satellite-derived PV power estimate medians in terms of MBE, rMBE, RMSE and rRMSE from 0.031 W / W p , 7.46 % , 0.079 W / W p and 23.4 % , down to 0.006 W / W p , - 0.711 % , 0.068 W / W p and 20.0 % , representing relative improvements of 80.6%, 90.5%, 13.9% and 14.5%, respectively. Similarly, when using 30 reference PV systems, we report median improvements from 0.036 W / W p , 8.25 % , 0.083 W / W p and 24.8 % , down to 0.01 W / W p , 1.41 % , 0.049 W / W p and 11.4 % , representing relative improvements of 72.2%, 82.9%, 41.0% and 54.0%, respectively. We discuss the fundamental challenges facing the use of reference PV systems, satellite-derived power estimates, combining the two data sources, and the knowledge required to address these issues. We ultimately conclude that combining satellite-based PV power estimates with data from reference PV systems is always more beneficial than either on their own.

中文翻译：

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使用来自参考光伏系统的实时功率数据改进卫星衍生的光伏功率临近预报

摘要 太阳能光伏 (PV) 系统在全球范围内的快速普及意味着电网运营商和发电商越来越关注太阳辐照度的短期太阳能预测（临近预报）。本文提出了一种方法，该方法考虑了不同数量的可用参考 PV 系统，以支持卫星衍生的 PV 功率实时临近预报。我们评估了传统的纯卫星和纯升级光伏车队估计方法，并将它们与两个新开发的校正和混合案例进行比较。当仅使用单个参考光伏系统估算澳大利亚堪培拉位置的 48 个独立目标光伏系统的总功率时；我们表明，新提出的校正或混合案例将 MBE、rMBE、RMSE 和 rRMSE 方面的卫星衍生 PV 功率估计中值的性能从 0.031 W / W p 、7.46 % 、0.079 W / W p 和 23.4 % 提高, 下降至 0.006 W / W p 、- 0.711 % 、0.068 W / W p 和 20.0 % ，分别代表 80.6%、90.5%、13.9% 和 14.5% 的相对改进。同样，当使用 30 个参考光伏系统时，我们报告了从 0.036 W / W p 、8.25 % 、0.083 W / W p 和 24.8 % 下降到 0.01 W / W p 、1.41 % 、0.049 W / W p 和 11.4 的中值改进% ，分别代表 72.2%、82.9%、41.0% 和 54.0% 的相对改进。我们讨论了使用参考光伏系统、卫星得出的功率估计、结合两个数据源以及解决这些问题所需的知识所面临的基本挑战。