Abstract Extraintestinal Pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC), including Uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), are common contaminants in poultry meat, and are a major pathogen associated with inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, sepsis, and urinary tract infections. The purpose of this study was to determine the growth potential of UPEC in ground chicken meat. A multi-isolate cocktail of UPEC was inoculated into ground chicken meat 103−4 log CFU/g and incubated at 4, 10, 15, 22, and 30 °C. The USDA Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program (IPMP) was used to conduct mathematical modeling and validation of UPEC growth using the Huang Primary Model and the Huang Square Root Secondary Model. No growth occurred at 4 °C, while the lag phases were ca. 23.6, 11.5, 5.2, and 0.36 h at 10, 15, 22, and 30 °C. According to the model, the Tmin, the minimum temperature for UPEC growth in ground chicken, was 5.1 °C. The growth rates (μmax, ln CFU/g h−1) were ca. 0.06, 0.27, 0.48, and 0.90. Approximately 83.9% of the residual errors are between ±0.5 log CFU/g, suggesting that the predictive models and the associated kinetic parameters are sufficiently accurate in predicting the growth of UPEC in ground chicken. These models have been validated and can be used in risk assessment of ExPEC in poultry meat.

中文翻译：

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碎鸡肉中尿路致病性大肠杆菌的生长模型

摘要 肠外致病性大肠杆菌 (ExPEC)，包括尿路致病性大肠杆菌 (UPEC)，是禽肉中的常见污染物，是与炎症性肠病、溃疡性结肠炎、败血症和尿路感染相关的主要病原体。本研究的目的是确定 UPEC 在碎鸡肉中的生长潜力。将 UPEC 的多分离混合物以 103−4 log CFU/g 接种到碎鸡肉中，并在 4、10、15、22 和 30 °C 下孵育。美国农业部综合病原体建模程序 (IPMP) 用于使用 Huang 初级模型和 Huang 平方根次级模型对 UPEC 生长进行数学建模和验证。在 4 °C 下没有生长，而滞后期约为。在 10、15、22 和 30 °C 下为 23.6、11.5、5.2 和 0.36 小时。根据模型，Tmin，UPEC 在碎鸡中生长的最低温度为 5.1 °C。增长率（μmax，ln CFU/gh-1）约为。0.06、0.27、0.48 和 0.90。大约 83.9% 的残差在 ±0.5 log CFU/g 之间，这表明预测模型和相关的动力学参数在预测碎鸡中 UPEC 的生长方面足够准确。这些模型已经过验证，可用于家禽肉中 ExPEC 的风险评估。