Abstract Around the world many peatlands are managed unsustainably. Drainage of the peat causes soil subsidence and a range of negative societal impacts. Integrated strategies are required to ensure more sustainable long-term settings, based on impact assessment models that simulate the interrelated dynamics of water management and soil subsidence, and determine the spatial and temporal range of societal impacts. This paper presents an integrated modelling framework that meets these requirements. We used the framework to assess the impacts of a range of water management strategies in Dutch peatlands. Average soil subsidence rates were shown to range from 0.6 to 4.5 mm·y− 1, resulting in marked differences in societal impacts that affect stakeholders unequally. Moreover, the impacts on real estate damage and water system maintenance revealed inverse trends that result in increasingly unbalanced cost-benefit ratios. The generated insights led the regional water authority to change their current water management strategy, preventing unsustainable future developments. We find the results relevant for improving stakeholders' awareness of long-term impacts of management strategies, and making negotiation processes on goals, means, and possible future pathways more transparent.

中文翻译：

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评估水管理策略对泥炭地土壤沉降的长期影响的综合建模框架

摘要 在世界各地，许多泥炭地的管理都是不可持续的。泥炭的排水会导致土壤沉降和一系列负面的社会影响。需要综合战略来确保更可持续的长期环境，基于影响评估模型，模拟水管理和土壤沉降的相互关联动态，并确定社会影响的空间和时间范围。本文提出了一个满足这些要求的集成建模框架。我们使用该框架来评估荷兰泥炭地一系列水资源管理策略的影响。平均土壤沉降速率范围为 0.6 到 4.5 mm·y− 1，导致社会影响的显着差异，对利益相关者的影响不平等。而且，对房地产损坏和供水系统维护的影响显示出相反的趋势，导致成本效益比越来越不平衡。所产生的见解促使区域水务局改变其当前的水管理战略，以防止未来不可持续的发展。我们发现这些结果与提高利益相关者对管理战略长期影响的认识有关，并使关于目标、手段和可能的未来途径的谈判过程更加透明。