This article evaluates the proposition that farmers in dryland West Africa will be compelled by midcentury to shift household resources from crop to livestock production due to changing climate conditions. The article investigates the prospects for such a livelihood transition in the semiarid part of eastern Senegal, where downscaled statistical models indicate temperature increases of at least 2°, that will have substantially negative impacts on crop yields. Based on survey of 448 households and focus groups conducted across an eco-climatological transect, the article presents evidence that this livelihood transition is already underway in many households but is increasingly out of reach for others. It uses statistical and qualitative analysis to argue that the most vulnerable households—crop-dependent smallholders in the geographic area where the livelihood shift is most needed—are the least prepared for it. The article shows that land degradation is both an additional cause of the transition and an obstacle to it. Soil exhaustion, made worse by the lack of opportunities to procure chemical fertilizer, is compelling many to seek to increase their livestock holdings. This strategy is constrained by rangeland degradation, which, made worse by expanding agriculture, reduces the viability of the transition for all but the wealthiest households. Households rely on migration to compensate for shortfalls in production, but this option is becoming closed off to those households who do not already have a member abroad. This is shown to raise the vulnerability of households who rely on a degraded resource base for their livelihoods.

中文翻译：

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阳光下的农作物和牲畜：塞内加尔东部适应21世纪高温的农村生计的障碍

本文评估了这样一种假设：由于气候条件的变化，西非干旱地区的农民到本世纪中叶将被迫将家庭资源从农作物生产转向畜牧生产。这篇文章调查了塞内加尔东部半干旱地区这种生计转变的前景，那里缩小的统计模型表明温度至少升高了2°，这将对作物产量产生实质性的负面影响。基于对跨一个生态气候学剖面的448户家庭和焦点小组的调查，该文章提供了证据，表明许多家庭已经在进行这种生计转变，但其他家庭却越来越无法做到这一点。它使用统计和定性分析来论证，最脆弱的家庭（在最需要生计转移的地理区域中依赖农作物的小农户）为此没有最充分的准备。该文章表明，土地退化既是过渡的附加原因，也是过渡的障碍。由于缺乏购买化学肥料的机会，土壤枯竭状况日趋严重，这迫使许多人试图增加牲畜的存栏。该策略受到牧场退化的限制，牧场退化因扩大农业而恶化，除了最富裕的家庭外，其他所有牧场的过渡可行性都降低了。家庭依靠移民来弥补生产上的不足，但是对于那些尚未在国外拥有成员的家庭来说，这种选择正变得封闭。