Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

社会日益要求稳定提供生态系统资源来支持我们的人口。由于温度升高和极端事件发生频率增加而导致的长期不平衡状态，气候驱动的干扰（包括干旱，高温，昆虫爆发和野火）造成的资源风险正在增加。需求和风险增加的融合可能很快就会达到关键阈值。我们在这里解释为什么生态系统功能的极端慢性不平衡现象可能会在全球范围内急剧增加，从而产生挑战适应性的无模拟条件。我们还提出了新颖的机械理论，该理论结合了扰动死亡率和代谢尺度的模型，以将依赖于大小的植物死亡率与生态系统种群和通量的变化联系起来。