Many economists have long held that carbon pricing—either through a carbon tax or cap-and-trade—is the most cost-effective way to decarbonize energy systems, along with subsidies for basic research and development. Meanwhile, green innovation and industrial policies aimed at fostering low-carbon energy technologies have proliferated widely. Most of these predate direct carbon pricing. Low-carbon leaders such as California and the European Union (EU) have followed a distinct policy sequence that helps overcome some of the political challenges facing low-carbon policy by building economic interest groups in support of decarbonization and reducing the cost of technologies required for emissions reductions. However, while politically effective, this policy pathway faces significant challenges to environmental and cost effectiveness, including excess rent capture and lock-in. Here we discuss options for addressing these challenges under political constraints. As countries move toward deeper emissions cuts, combining and sequencing policies will prove critical to avoid environmental, economic, and political dead-ends in decarbonizing energy systems.

长期以来，许多经济学家一直认为，碳定价（通过征收碳税或限额交易）是使能源系统脱碳的最经济有效的方式，同时还包括基础研究和开发的补贴。同时，旨在培育低碳能源技术的绿色创新和产业政策已广泛扩散。其中大多数早于直接碳定价。诸如加利福尼亚和欧盟（EU）之类的低碳领导人遵循了独特的政策顺序，通过建立支持脱碳的经济利益集团并降低了所需的技术成本，帮助克服了低碳政策面临的一些政治挑战。减排量。但是，尽管该政策途径在政治上有效，但它在环境和成本效益方面面临着严峻的挑战，包括超额租金捕获和锁定。在这里，我们讨论了在政治限制下应对这些挑战的选择。随着各国朝着更深远的减排目标迈进，合并和排序政策将对避免能源系统脱碳中的环境，经济和政治僵局至关重要。