The dedicated emission reduction and renewable implementation goals of several countries within the European Union led to the implementation of different support schemes and consequently to market development for biomethane. As the development and market penetration of biomethane as a renewable energy source is in most cases dependent on governmental support (in the form of incentive schemes or support programs) it is highly beneficial to be able to estimate the effects of planned actions. The current framework for biomethane encompasses high uncertainties within the market due to changing legislative conditions. Consequently this research presents a dynamic market model developed that is able to determine the effects of different policies and regulations to producing biomethane capacity, substitution pathways, land use and greenhouse gas emission reduction. It is the first model that encompasses the three sectors power, heat and transport in a dynamic model for biogenic energy carriers exploring the effects of new Government policies. Results indicate that a large proportion of the biomethane used today can no longer be produced economically when the financial support ends after a period of 20 years. Those plants, receiving a comparably high financial support, can only keep on producing and selling biomethane if there are other market opportunities than the CHP market. New instruments like blending could increase the biomethane sale in the direct heating market above the level shown in our results besides other measures like the prohibition of fossil fuels. The transport market would be able to compensate large proportions of the losses from the CHP market under a strong stepwise increment of the price for emission allowances.

欧洲联盟内几个国家的专门的减排和可再生能源实施目标导致实施了不同的支持计划，从而促进了生物甲烷的市场开发。由于生物甲烷作为可再生能源的开发和市场渗透在大多数情况下取决于政府的支持（以激励计划或支持计划的形式），因此能够估计计划中的行动的效果是非常有益的。由于立法条件的变化，目前的生物甲烷框架在市场上存在很大的不确定性。因此，这项研究提出了一个动态的市场模型，该模型能够确定不同政策和法规对生产生物甲烷的能力，替代途径，土地利用和减少温室气体排放。这是第一个在动态模型中涵盖电力，热力和运输三个部门的模型，该模型为生物能源载体探索新政府政策的效果。结果表明，如果20年后资金支持终止，今天使用的大部分生物甲烷将不再经济地生产。这些工厂获得了相当高的财政支持，只有在热电联产市场以外还有其他市场机会的情况下，才能继续生产和销售沼气。除了禁止化石燃料等其他措施外，混合等新手段还可将直接供热市场中的生物甲烷销售量提高到我们的结果所示水平之上。