This article evaluates the proposition that farmers in dryland West Africa will be compelled by mid-century to shift household resources from crop to livestock production due to changing climate conditions. The article investigates the prospects for such a livelihood transition in the semi-arid part of eastern Senegal, where downscaled statistical models indicate temperature increases of at least two degrees, which will have substantially negative impacts on crop yields. Based on survey of 448 households and focus groups conducted across an eco-climatological transect, the article presents evidence that this livelihood transition is already underway in many households but is increasingly out of reach for others. It uses statistical and qualitative analysis to argue that the most vulnerable households—crop-dependent smallholders in the geographic area where the livelihood shift is most needed—are the least prepared for it. The article shows that land degradation is both an additional cause of the transition and an obstacle to it. Soil exhaustion, made worse by the lack of opportunities to procure chemical fertilizer, is compelling many to seek to increase their livestock holdings. This strategy is constrained by rangeland degradation, which, made worse by expanding agriculture, reduces the viability of the transition for all but the wealthiest households. Households rely on migration to compensate for shortfalls in production but this option is becoming closed off to those households who do not already have a member abroad. This is shown to raise the vulnerability of households who rely on a degraded resource base for their livelihoods.

中文翻译：

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阳光下的农作物和牲畜：塞内加尔东部农村生计适应 21 世纪高温的障碍

本文评估了这样一个命题，即由于气候条件的变化，西非旱地的农民将在本世纪中叶被迫将家庭资源从作物生产转向畜牧生产。本文调查了塞内加尔东部半干旱地区这种生计转变的前景，缩小的统计模型表明温度至少升高了两度，这将对作物产量产生重大负面影响。基于对生态气候样带中 448 户家庭和焦点小组的调查，本文提供的证据表明，这种生计转变已经在许多家庭中进行，但对其他家庭来说却越来越遥不可及。它使用统计和定性分析来论证最脆弱的家庭——最需要生计转变的地理区域中依赖作物的小农——对此准备最少。文章表明，土地退化既是转型的另一个原因，也是转型的障碍。由于缺乏获得化肥的机会，土壤枯竭变得更糟，迫使许多人寻求增加他们的牲畜持有量。这一战略受到牧场退化的限制，而扩大农业使情况变得更糟，降低了除最富裕家庭以外的所有人的转型可行性。家庭依靠移民来弥补生产不足，但这种选择对那些在国外还没有成员的家庭来说是封闭的。