Objective To analyse the prevalence, incidence and clinical relevance of pancreatic cysts detected as incidental finding in a population-based longitudinal study. Design A total of 1077 participants (521 men, mean age 55.8±12.8 years) of 2333 participants from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) underwent magnetic resonance cholangiopancreaticography (MRCP) at baseline (2008–2012). MRCP was analysed for pancreatic cysts with a diameter ≥2 mm. 676/1077 subjects received a 5-year follow-up (2014–2016). The prevalence and incidence of pancreatic cysts (weighted for study participation) were assessed in association to age, gender and suspected epidemiological risk factors. Mortality follow-up was performed in 2015 for all SHIP participants (mean follow-up period 5.9 years, range 3.2–7.5 years). Results At baseline pancreatic cysts had a weighted prevalence of 49.1%, with an average number of 3.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 4.5) cysts per subject in the subgroup harbouring cysts. Cyst size ranged from 2 to 29 mm. Prevalence (p<0.001), number (p=0.001) and maximum size (p<0.001) increased significantly with age. The 5-year follow-up revealed a weighted incidence of 12.9% newly detected pancreatic cysts. 57.1% of the subjects initially harbouring pancreatic cysts showed an increase in number and/or maximum cyst size. Of all subjects undergoing MRCP, no participant died of pancreatic diseases within mortality follow-up. Conclusion The prevalence of pancreatic cysts in the general population is unexpectedly high, and their number and size increase with age. Overall, no pancreatic cancer was observed in this collective during a 5-year follow-up. Nevertheless, prospective follow-up imaging showed minimal progress in more than 50%. Only about 6% of cysts and 2.5% of the study group initially presented with cysts of more than 1 cm and thus might be clinically meaningful.

中文翻译：

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一项基于人群的研究中胰腺囊肿的发生率、患病率和 5 年胰腺相关死亡率的前瞻性研究

目的 分析在基于人群的纵向研究中偶然发现的胰腺囊肿的患病率、发病率和临床相关性。设计 来自波美拉尼亚人群健康研究 (SHIP) 的 2333 名参与者中的 1077 名参与者（521 名男性，平均年龄 55.8±12.8 岁）在基线（2008-2012 年）接受了磁共振胰胆管造影 (MRCP)。MRCP 分析了直径 ≥ 2 mm 的胰腺囊肿。676/1077 名受试者接受了 5 年的随访（2014-2016 年）。胰腺囊肿的患病率和发病率（对研究参与加权）与年龄、性别和可疑的流行病学危险因素相关联进行评估。2015 年对所有 SHIP 参与者进行了死亡率随访（平均随访期 5.9 年，范围 3.2-7.5 年）。结果 在基线时，胰腺囊肿的加权患病率为 49.1%，在包含囊肿的亚组中，每位受试者平均有 3.9 个（95% CI 3.2 至 4.5）个囊肿。囊肿大小范围为 2 至 29 毫米。患病率 (p<0.001)、数量 (p=0.001) 和最大尺寸 (p<0.001) 随年龄显着增加。5 年随访显示新发现的胰腺囊肿的加权发生率为 12.9%。57.1% 最初患有胰腺囊肿的受试者显示数量和/或最大囊肿大小增加。在所有接受 MRCP 的受试者中，没有参与者在死亡率随访期间死于胰腺疾病。结论 胰腺囊肿在普通人群中的患病率出乎意料地高，并且随着年龄的增长，其数量和大小会增加。总体而言，在 5 年的随访期间，在这个群体中没有观察到胰腺癌。然而，前瞻性随访影像显示超过 50% 的进展微乎其微。只有约 6% 的囊肿和 2.5% 的研究组最初出现超过 1 cm 的囊肿，因此可能具有临床意义。