Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation represents a major obstacle to species shifting their range in response to climate change¹. Conservation measures to increase the (meta-)population capacity² and permeability of landscapes³ may help but the effectiveness of such measures in a warming climate has rarely been evaluated. Here, we simulate range dynamics of 51 species from three taxonomic groups (vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers) in Central Europe as driven by twenty-first-century climate scenarios and analyse how three habitat-based conservation strategies (establishing corridors, improving the landscape matrix, and protected area management) modify species’ projected range size changes. These simulations suggest that the conservation strategies considered are unable to save species from regional extinction. For those persisting, they reduce the magnitude of range loss in lowland but not in alpine species. Protected area management and corridor establishment are more effective than matrix improvement. However, none of the conservation strategies evaluated could fully compensate the negative impact of climate change for vascular plants, butterflies or grasshoppers in central Europe.

人为的栖息地破碎化是物种响应气候变化¹改变其范围的主要障碍。保护措施，以增加（元）种群的容量²和景观的渗透性³可能有帮助，但很少评估这种措施在变暖气候下的有效性。在这里，我们以二十一世纪的气候情景为基础，模拟了中欧三个分类组（维管植物，蝴蝶和蚱grass）的51种物种的动态范围，并分析了三种基于栖息地的保护策略（建立走廊，改善景观）矩阵和保护区管理）修改物种的预计范围大小变化。这些模拟表明，所考虑的保护策略无法拯救物种免受区域灭绝的影响。对于那些坚持不懈的人来说，它们减少了低地的距离损失的幅度，但没有减少高山物种的损失。保护区管理和走廊建设比矩阵改善更为有效。然而，