Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability¹. Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios^2,3,4. Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records⁵, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)⁶ under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence⁸. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments.

火山活动在调节气候多变性中起着重要作用¹。然而，二十一世纪的大多数模型预测通过不代表可能发生的喷发情景^2、3、4的范围，对未来的火山作用进行了采样不足。在这里，我们探索了与冰芯记录⁵相一致的六十种可能的火山未来，如何影响RCP4.5下的挪威地球系统模型（NorESM）^6的气候变异性预测（参考文献7）。火山强迫的加入增加了年际至十年际尺度上的气候变异性。虽然几十年负全球温度趋势变得〜火山活动比平常多50％，因此不太可能减轻长期的人为变暖。火山活动还影响全球辐射，海平面，海洋环流和海冰变化的概率预测，当量化出现时间时，可以检测到其局部尺度的影响⁸。这些结果突出了在未来的气候评估中代表火山不确定性的重要性和可行性。