Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research.

气候变化正在从基因到生态系统的多个层面改变生活。预测人口对气候变化的脆弱性对于减轻负面影响至关重要。我们建议，根据生物体的性状而定的时空气候变化的区域模式可以预测人口最容易受到气候变化影响的地点和原因。具体而言，历史气候变化通过塑造性状和这些性状的遗传变异来影响人口对气候变化的敏感性和响应能力。当前和未来的气候变化都可能影响气候变化暴露和人口响应。我们提供了七个有关气候变化如何影响人口对气候变化脆弱性的预测，并提出了未来研究的主要方向。