Global surface temperature short-term trends fluctuate between cooling and fast-warming under the combined action of external forcing and internal variability, significantly influencing the detectability of near-term climate change. A key driver of these variations is anthropogenic aerosols (AAs), which have undergone a non-monotonic evolution with rapid reduction in recent decades. However, their reduction is projected to decelerate under a high carbon emission scenario, yet the impact on surface temperature trends remains unknown. Here, using initial-perturbation large ensembles, we find that future slowdown in AA reduction over Europe and North America expedites the subpolar North Atlantic surface warming by intensifying the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Further, it accelerates the South Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean surface warming through positive low-cloud feedback and oceanic dynamical adjustment, triggered by the poleward migration of westerlies under interhemispheric energy constraint. These AA-driven warmings exacerbate greenhouse warming, significantly enhancing the detectability of local decadal warming trends.

中文翻译：

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未来人为气溶胶减少的放缓将增强温带海洋表面变暖的趋势

在外部强迫和内部变率的共同作用下，全球地表温度短期趋势在变冷和快速变暖之间波动，显着影响近期气候变化的可探测性。这些变化的一个关键驱动因素是人为气溶胶（AA），近几十年来，它经历了非单调演变并迅速减少。然而，在高碳排放情况下，预计其减少速度将会放缓，但对地表温度趋势的影响仍未知。在这里，使用初始扰动大集合，我们发现未来欧洲和北美 AA 减少的放缓会通过加强大西洋经向翻转环流加速北大西洋副极地表面变暖。此外，它通过半球间能量约束下西风带向极地迁移引发的正低云反馈和海洋动力调整，加速了南印度洋和南大洋表面变暖。这些由AA驱动的变暖加剧了温室变暖，显着增强了当地十年变暖趋势的可检测性。