An economic analysis of profitability using Net Present Value (NPV) was conducted using data from two long-term training system × rootstock field trials conducted in New York State from 2006 to 2016 (Dressel Farm in southeastern New York State and VandeWalle Farm in Western, New York State). We used trial data for the first 11 years and estimated values for years 12–20 using average data from the last 4 years of field data. The field trials compared four training systems with different planting densities (Slender Pyramid, 840 trees ha; Vertical Axis, 1282 trees ha; Slender Axis, 2244 trees ha; and Tall Spindle, 3262 trees ha) each evaluated with several rootstocks in an incomplete factorial treatment list and with two cultivars at each location. By the end of the trial (11 years) all combinations of planting density, rootstock and cultivar were profitable (NPV positive) at the VandeWalle site but at the Dressel site seven combinations of rootstock and planting density with ‘Fuji’ and two combinations with ‘Gala’ were not profitable. Projected profitability over 20 years using estimated yields and fruit quality for years 12–20 showed that all combinations would be profitable by year 20. Estimated 20-year NPV was greatest with the Tall Spindle system with the highest planting density compared to the other lower density systems. Economic performance was mostly driven by planting density, regardless of the rootstock selection. Among cultivars, ‘Honeycrisp’ had significantly higher profitability largely due to high fruit price). ‘Gala’ had intermediate profitability due to high yields and medium fruit price while ‘Fuji’ which had low fruit price had significantly lower profitability than ‘Gala’. Among rootstocks, there was a significant interaction with training system and cultivar, so the same rootstock was not the most profitable with every cultivar and system. With ‘Fuji’ the most profitable combination was on G.16 rootstock planted at the highest density, however, it was not significantly better than with G.11 or M.9. With ‘Gala’ at Dressel farm the most profitable combination was on G.11 in the Tall Spindle system (planted at the highest density) but it was not significantly better than with G.16, G.41, M.9 or B.9. With ‘Gala’ at VandeWalle farm the most profitable combination was on G.41 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than on G.11, G.16, M.9 or B.9. With ‘Honeycrisp’ the most profitable combination was on M.9 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than G.11, G.16, G.41 or B.9. A sensitivity analysis showed that among economic parameters affecting the long-term profitability of an orchard, fruit price and yield were vastly more important than other factors. Of intermediate importance were the discount rate and labor costs while of much lesser importance were tree costs and land costs.

中文翻译：

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品种、种植密度和砧木对美国东北部苹果园长期经济效益的影响

使用净现值（NPV）对盈利能力进行经济分析，使用 2006 年至 2016 年在纽约州进行的两个长期培训系统 × 砧木田间试验（纽约州东南部的德雷塞尔农场和西部的范德瓦勒农场，纽约州）。我们使用前 11 年的试验数据，并使用过去 4 年现场数据的平均数据来估计第 12-20 年的值。田间试验比较了四种不同种植密度的训练系统（细长金字塔，840 棵树·公顷；垂直轴，1282 棵树·公顷；细长轴，2244 棵树·公顷；高纺锤形，3262 棵树·公顷），每个系统都用不完全因子分析中的几种砧木进行评估处理列表以及每个地点的两个品种。试验结束时（11 年），VandeWalle 基地的所有种植密度、砧木和品种组合均有利可图（NPV 为正值），但在 Dressel 基地，“Fuji”的砧木和种植密度有 7 种组合，以及“Fuji”的两种组合。 Gala' 没有盈利。使用 12-20 年的估计产量和水果质量预测 20 年的盈利能力表明，所有组合到 20 年都将盈利。与其他较低密度的种植密度最高的高纺锤系统相比，估计的 20 年 NPV 最高系统。无论砧木选择如何，经济表现主要由种植密度驱动。在品种中，“Honeycrisp”的盈利能力明显较高，这主要是由于水果价格较高）。 '嘎拉'由于产量高、果价中等而具有中等盈利能力，而'富士'由于果价较低，其盈利能力明显低于'嘎拉'。在砧木中，与培养系统和品种之间存在显着的相互作用，因此同一砧木并不是对每个品种和系统来说都是最有利可图的。对于'Fuji'来说，最有利可图的组合是以最高密度种植的G.16砧木，但是，它并不比G.11或M.9好得多。在德雷塞尔农场的“Gala”中，最有利可图的组合是高纺锤系统中的 G.11（以最高密度种植），但并不比 G.16、G.41、M.9 或 B 明显好。 9.在 VandeWalle 农场的“Gala”中，最有利可图的组合是以最高密度种植的 G.41，但并不比 G.11、G.16、M.9 或 B.9 明显好。对于“Honeycrisp”，最有利可图的组合是以最高密度种植的 M.9，但它并不明显优于 G.11、G.16、G.41 或 B.9。敏感性分析表明，在影响果园长期盈利能力的经济参数中，水果价格和产量比其他因素更为重要。中等重要的是贴现率和劳动力成本，而不太重要的是树木成本和土地成本。