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Seeking a shock haven: Hedging extreme upward oil price changes
International Review of Financial Analysis ( IF 8.235 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103245
Thomas Conlon , Shaen Corbet , Yang (Greg) Hou , Yang Hu , Les Oxley

Crude oil is prone to large upward price shocks, creating challenges for personal and corporate budgeting and the economy more broadly. In this paper, we systematically assess a range of possible assets which might function as against large oil price shocks. Empirical tests uncover a rich set of assets which act both as hedges and shock havens, including precious metals, soft commodities and, with less consistency, currencies. The range of possible hedges is extensive, marked by a positive correlation with oil returns on average. Gold, silver, platinum, corn, and wheat are shown to provide consistent shock haven properties across various specifications, including those surrounding the large oil price changes observed during the COVID-19 Pandemic and following the invasion of Ukraine.

中文翻译:

寻求冲击避风港:对冲油价极端上涨的变化

原油价格容易出现大幅上涨冲击,给个人和企业预算以及更广泛的经济带来挑战。在本文中,我们系统地评估了一系列可能起到抵御大规模油价冲击作用的资产。实证检验揭示了一系列丰富的资产,它们既可以作为对冲工具,也可以作为避险工具,包括贵金属、软商品以及一致性较差的货币。可能的对冲范围很广泛,其特点是与石油平均回报率呈正相关。黄金、白银、铂金、玉米和小麦在各种规格中均能提供一致的避险属性,包括在 COVID-19 大流行期间和乌克兰入侵后观察到的油价大幅变化的规格。
更新日期:2024-04-01
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