Levees aim to provide protection during floods, however, these structures can breach, causing significant damage. Flood maps that include levee breaching are often limited to deterministic methods. Where probabilistic breaching is done, it often requires computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations and an understanding of the geotechnical levee properties that are often limited. In this paper, we combine existing fragility curves and empirical breaching equations with a framework for automating levee breaching in catchments with limited geotechnical information. This method can be adapted and applied to existing 2D flood models to determine the probability of inundation, given that a breach occurs. This ultimately allows for greater emergency responses and land use planning to reduce the flood risk faced by our communities. The method was applied to four case study catchments. The results showed that including levee breaching in one catchment led to an average increase in the inundated area by 48.2% and a tripling in the potentially exposed area. However, breaching in some locations reduced the inundation extent by 12%, illustrating the potential for fuse plug levees and floodways as a flood mitigation strategy. This strategy has seen successful usage internationally. Further investigation is recommended to consider whether these mitigation strategies should be enacted.

中文翻译：

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堤坝溃决情况下洪水概率建模的框架

堤坝的目的是在洪水期间提供保护，然而，这些结构可能会决口，造成重大损失。包含堤坝溃决的洪水地图通常仅限于确定性方法。在进行概率性破坏时，通常需要进行计算成本高昂的蒙特卡罗模拟，并且需要了解通常受到限制的岩土工程堤坝特性。在本文中，我们将现有的脆弱性曲线和经验决堤方程与在岩土信息有限的集水区自动决堤的框架相结合。该方法可以适应并应用于现有的二维洪水模型，以确定发生溃口时发生淹没的概率。这最终有助于加强应急响应和土地利用规划，以减少我们社区面临的洪水风险。该方法应用于四个案例研究流域。结果显示，将堤坝决口纳入一个流域后，淹没面积平均增加 48.2%，潜在暴露面积增加两倍。然而，某些地点的决口使淹没范围减少了 12%，这说明了熔塞堤和泄洪道作为防洪策略的潜力。这一策略已在国际上得到成功运用。建议进一步调查以考虑是否应制定这些缓解策略。