Although going out has been reported to be associated with the incidence of disability, few studies have investigated the effect of community-based programs to promote going out on the incidence of disability. This study aimed to estimate the effects of a program fostering going-out on the incidence of disability in community-dwelling older adults. Longitudinal, observational study. Nonengaged (n = 1086) and engaged older adults (n = 1086) enrolled in the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Study of Geriatric Syndrome by using a one-to-one nearest neighbor propensity score–matching scheme. After the baseline assessments, participants in the community-based going-out program received a specialized physical activity tracker, monitored their daily physical activity, and received personalized feedback on going out to community facilities with a system for reading the device for 12 months. Disability onset was defined as a new case of long-term care under the public insurance certification in Japan within 48 months of program completion. The absolute risk reduction and the number needed to treat for the incidence of disability were calculated for the nonengaged and engaged groups. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, using inverse probability weighting was used to obtain the hazard ratio. Disabilities occurred in 112 individuals in the matched nonengaged group and 51 individuals in the engaged group. The absolute risk reduction was 5.67% (95% CI 3.46%-7.88%). The number needed to treat was 18 (95% CI 13-29). The hazard ratio, with the nonengaged group as the reference, was 0.49 (95% CI 0.36-0.67). This longitudinal observational study suggested that a community-based program could prevent 1 disability in every 18 participants. This program does not require a professional instructor, only the distribution of devices and system installation, and it could be beneficial as a population-based approach to preventing disabilities.

中文翻译：

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评估参与社区外出计划对老年人残疾发生率的影响

尽管据报道外出与残疾发生率相关，但很少有研究调查以社区为基础的促进外出活动对残疾发生率的影响。本研究旨在评估促进外出活动对社区老年人残疾发生率的影响。纵向观察研究。通过使用一对一的最近邻倾向评分匹配方案，未参与的老年人 (n = 1086) 和参与的老年人 (n = 1086) 参加了国家老年病学和老年综合症老年学研究中心。在基线评估之后，基于社区的外出计划的参与者收到了专门的身体活动跟踪器，监测他们的日常身体活动，并通过读取设备的系统获得了外出社区设施的个性化反馈，持续 12 个月。残疾发病被定义为项目完成后 48 个月内根据日本公共保险认证的长期护理新病例。计算了非参与组和参与组的绝对风险降低和残疾发生率所需治疗的人数。使用逆概率加权的 Cox 比例风险回归分析来获得风险比。匹配的非参与组中有 112 人出现残疾，参与组有 51 人出现残疾。绝对风险降低为 5.67% (95% CI 3.46%-7.88%)。需要治疗的人数为 18 人（95% CI 13-29）。以非参与组为参考的风险比为 0.49 (95% CI 0.36-0.67)。这项纵向观察研究表明，基于社区的计划可以预防每 18 名参与者中 1 名残疾。该计划不需要专业教练，只需要分发设备和系统安装，作为一种基于人群的预防残疾的方法可能是有益的。