Summer cyanobacterial blooms exhibit a dynamic interplay between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, significantly influencing the cyanotoxin levels within a lake. The challenge lies in accurately predicting these toxin concentrations due to the significant temporal fluctuations in the proportions of toxic and non-toxic genotypes. Typically, the toxic genotypes dominate during the early and late summer periods, while the non-toxic variants prevail in mid-summer. To dissect this phenomenon, we propose a model that accounts for the competitive interaction between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, as well as seasonal temperature variations. Our numerical simulations suggest that the optimal temperature of the toxic genotypes is lower than that of the optimal temperatures of the non-toxic counterparts. This difference of optimal temperature may potentially contribute to explain the dominance of toxic genotypes at the early and late summer periods, situation often observed in the field. Experimental data from the laboratory align qualitatively with our simulation results, enabling a better understanding of complex interplays between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria.

中文翻译：

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季节性温度变化如何影响有毒和无毒蓝藻水华之间的相互作用？来自建模和实验数据的证据

夏季蓝藻水华表现出有毒和无毒基因型之间的动态相互作用，显着影响湖泊内的蓝藻毒素水平。由于有毒和无毒基因型比例的显着时间波动，挑战在于准确预测这些毒素浓度。通常，有毒基因型在夏初和夏末占主导地位，而无毒基因型在仲夏期间占主导地位。为了剖析这种现象，我们提出了一个模型来解释有毒和无毒基因型之间的竞争相互作用，以及季节性温度变化。我们的数值模拟表明，有毒基因型的最适温度低于无毒基因型的最适温度。这种最佳温度的差异可能有助于解释有毒基因型在夏初和夏末的主导地位，这种情况经常在田间观察到。实验室的实验数据与我们的模拟结果定性一致，有助于更好地理解有毒和无毒蓝藻之间的复杂相互作用。