How do technological revolutions affect the rise and fall of great powers? Scholars have long observed that major technological breakthroughs disrupt economic power balances, yet they rarely investigate how this process occurs. Existing studies establish that a nation’s success in adapting to revolutionary technologies is determined by the fit between its institutions and the demands of these technologies. The standard explanation emphasizes institutions suited for monopolizing innovation in new, fast-growing industries (leading sectors). I outline an alternative pathway based on general-purpose technologies (GPTs), foundational advances that boost productivity only after an extended diffusion process across many sectors. Specifically, GPT diffusion demands institutional adaptations that widen the base of engineering skills associated with a GPT. To test this argument, I set the GPT mechanism against the leading-sector mechanism across three cases, which correspond to past industrial revolutions: Britain’s rise to preeminence in the early nineteenth century; the United States’s overtaking of Britain before World War I; Japan’s challenge to US technological dominance in the late twentieth century. The findings support a novel explanation for technology-driven power transitions, directly bearing on how emerging technologies like AI, which some regard as driving a fourth industrial revolution, could influence a possible US–China power transition.

中文翻译：

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技术领先地位的兴衰：通用技术扩散和经济权力转移

科技革命如何影响大国兴衰？学者们长期以来一直观察到重大技术突破会破坏经济权力平衡，但他们很少研究这一过程是如何发生的。现有研究表明，一个国家能否成功适应革命性技术取决于其机构与这些技术的需求之间的契合度。标准解释强调适合在快速增长的新兴行业（主导行业）中垄断创新的制度。我概述了一种基于通用技术 (GPT) 的替代途径，这种基础性进步只有在跨多个部门的扩展扩散过程后才能提高生产力。具体来说，GPT 的传播需要进行制度调整，以扩大与 GPT 相关的工程技能基础。为了检验这一论点，我将GPT机制与主导部门机制相对立，分为三个案例，这与过去的工业革命相对应：英国在19世纪初期崛起；美国在第一次世界大战前超越英国；二十世纪末日本对美国技术主导地位的挑战。研究结果支持了对技术驱动的权力转移的新颖解释，直接关系到人工智能等新兴技术（一些人认为人工智能正在推动第四次工业革命）如何影响可能的中美权力转移。